The holiday shopping season got off to a good start this weekend, as Black Friday online sales exceeded expectations and began to build much-needed retail momentum. Consumers spent a record $9.12 billion on online shopping on Black Friday, according to Adobe’s online sales tracker. That is 2.3% more than last year and well above expectations of a 1% increase. But that’s just one piece of the puzzle. In another early overview report, Black Friday traffic in brick-and-mortar stores increased about 3% from 2021, according to retail tracker Sensormatic, which attributed the increase to increased promotional activity and “favorable shopping experiences.” While inflation has put pressure on consumers this year, more than 166 million people planned to shop from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey. That is 8 million more than last year and the highest estimate since 2017. The final NRF figures will be announced on Tuesday. KeyBanc cited Sensormatic data in a research note on Sunday – saying that, if accurate, the numbers would be higher than what analysts see. In recent channel checks, KeyBanc sees that traffic at physical retailers has been “steady” year over year. The analysts point out that this year’s Christmas shopping calendar is one day longer than in 2021. Many struggling retailers benefited from this apparently strong start to Christmas shopping. Goldman Sachs said retailers like Target (TGT) and Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) attracted more consumers through deep discounts on products. In a separate note, Deutsche Bank noted “strong demand for beauty” at retailers such as Ulta Beauty (ULTA), Kohl’s (KSS), Victoria’s Secret (VSCO), and Bath & Body Works (BBWI). Clothing store traffic was also solid. Deutsche Bank analysts said American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) was a leader among teens. Other notable artists included the Old Navy brand from Gap (GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and the Hollister brand. The bottom line With the holiday shopping underway, we continue to love low-cost retailers in these trying times. We are most bullish on the Club holding company TJX Companies (TJX), which operates TJ Maxx, HomeGoods and Marshalls. Major full-price retailers have faced excess inventory, which serves as a huge crop of cheap merchandise that discounters like TJX, Ross Stores (ROST), and Burlington Stores (BURL) can turn around for a good profit as well as good bargain customers . In the meantime, many of the chain stores are still dealing with surplus stocks. They over-ordered this year, anticipating a repeat of the pandemic shopping spree in 2020 and 2021. But consumer spending shifted from buying things to experiences like eating out and going on vacation, leaving many retailers with too much stuff. Bad news for those stores was good for TJX, which outperformed the broader market this year. We see more strong performances ahead. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long TJX. See here for a full list of the shares.) As a subscriber to the TBEN Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charity’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on TBEN TV, he will wait 72 hours after the trade alert is issued before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER. NO FIDUCIAL OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS OR IS CREATED BY YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Customers line up at the checkout counter of a Macy’s store during Black Friday sales on November 25, 2022 in Jersey City, New Jersey.
Kena Betancur | Getty Images
The holiday shopping season got off to a good start this weekend, as Black Friday online sales exceeded expectations and began to build much-needed retail momentum.
