During the off-season prior to each NFL season, oddsmakers release an expected winning total for each team. Bettors can then bet on whether the team will go above or below that total. It’s a bet that can give you something to root for almost all season.
The Miami Dolphins had an active offseason. They hired a new and exciting head coach, Mike McDaniel. They bought one of the best guns in football in Tyrek Hill. There was some excitement around the dolphins. Oddsmakers set their preseason win total at 8.5 wins. That would put Miami on the playoff bubble in the AFC.
Well, oddsmakers seem to have nailed that projection. However, the path to this point has been one hell of a rollercoaster and is definitely not what they expected.
The Dolphins started the season with a 3-0 record and had victories over the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. In their fourth game, Tua Tagovailoa was out with a concussion. They lost that game and the next two their record dropped to 3-3. An injury to a starting quarterback that leads to three losses in a row is already a bad place to be when you bet the over.
However, Tagovailoa returned and the Dolphins won five games in a row to improve to 8-3. At the time, overgammers needed Miami to win just one of their last six games to cash in over 8.5 wins.
The schedule got tough with Miami dropping three consecutive games en route to San Francisco, the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo. Suddenly, Miami was 8-6 and their grip on a playoff spot loosened. Still, they were in a good spot, needing just one win in their last three games to rack up over 8.5 wins.
Next was a Christmas game against the Green Bay Packers. The Dolphins were home favourites. In the second half, Tagovailoa struggled immensely and the Dolphins lost the game. It was revealed after the match that Tagovailoa suffered another concussion. Last week, the Dolphins had a lead against the Patriots. Then Teddy Bridgewater threw a pick-six and injured his throwing hand on the same play. Miami went on to lose.
As we enter Week 18, the Dolphins are at 8-8. They need a win against the New York Jets and a Patriots loss against the Bills to get into the playoffs. If they get that win to get into the playoffs, over bettors will finally cash in on their bet. If you bet the under, you probably expected to lose the bet when Miami was 8-3 a few weeks ago. Suddenly you are very much in the game to win your bet. Miami is a 1-point home underdog against the Jets this Sunday. In addition, Miami will likely rely on third-rate quarterback Skylar Thompson.
Other win totals are still in flux
The Miami Dolphins’ win total is one of six win totals yet to be decided before entering the final week of the NFL’s regular season. Let’s take a look at the other five.
Baltimore Ravens
While not as maddening as the Dolphins’ win total, punters who put Baltimore’s 10.5-plus wins must be annoyed by now, too. It was an up and down start for Baltimore as they went 3-3 in their first six games. However, they won four games in a row to finish 7-3. They appeared to have their eighth win in hand, but Trevor Lawrence staged a late comeback to give Baltimore a loss.
Since then, Lamar Jackson was injured and Tyler Huntley has taken over. They’ve lost close games to Cleveland and Pittsburgh, games they would definitely win with Lamar at quarterback. As we head into Week 18, the Ravens have 10 wins. They are 7-point underdogs against the Bengals as it looks like Jackson will be out again.
Had Lamar stayed healthy, the Ravens would likely have cruised to victory with over 10.5 wins. Instead, it takes a decent upset to cash in on the other side of that ticket.
Chargers from Los Angeles
The off-season hype for the Chargers is nothing new. After suffering many key injuries to the likes of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, JC Jackson, Rashawn Slater and Joey Bosa, the Chargers were only 6-6. However, they have won four consecutive games to clinch a playoff spot and reach 10 wins.
Bettors betting on the Chargers to get more than 10.5 wins will need Los Angeles to win one more game. Unfortunately for them, it looks like Los Angeles may not play their starters this Sunday. If Baltimore loses to Cincinnati in the early afternoon, Los Angeles will have nothing to play for in the late afternoon. The Chargers are 2.5 points underdogs against the Broncos on Sunday.
Between the slow start, the many early season injuries, and the potential to bench their starters in the season finale, it would be a serious blow if the Chargers fell below 10.5 wins.
New England patriots
For the patriots, it’s simple. Win and you’re in the playoffs. The same formula applies to anyone who bets the Patriots to more than 8.5 wins this season. Unfortunately for those punters, New England is a 7-point underdog against the Buffalo Bills.
Washington commanders
The Commanders led 7–5 in consecutive games against the New York Giants. They came straight into the first game as road favourites. In the rematch they lost as home favourites. They have since lost to the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns. Washington had five chances to cash in over 7.5 wins for their bettors, but it all comes down to this weekend.
Unfortunately for anyone with more than 7.5 wins, the Commanders are a touchdown home underdog against the Dallas Cowboys as Washington will give Sam Howell his first career start.
Carolina Panthers
If you bet on the Panthers to get more than 5.5 wins early in the off-season, you’ve already cashed in that ticket. However, after Carolina Baker took over Mayfield, their win total rose to 6.5 wins. Then when you deploy them, you have one more game to sweat out.
The Panthers are 3.5 points away underdogs against the New Orleans Saints. On the one hand, you’d have to think that the Panthers might feel defeated after missing out on the playoffs with a heavy loss last week. However, their players seem to like interim coach Steve Wilks and may want to fight for him one last time. It’s a winnable game, but they are underdogs.
The over teams
Leading up to Week 18, fourteen NFL teams have already cashed in their total season wins:
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Buffalo OVER 11.5 wins
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Kansas City OVER 10.5 wins
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Dallas OVER 10.5 wins
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Philadelphia OVER 9.5 wins
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Minnesota OVER 9.5 wins
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San Francisco OVER 9.5 wins
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Cincinnati OVER 9.5 wins
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NY Giants OVER 7.5 wins
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Pittsburgh OVER 7.5 wins
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Detroit OVER 6.5 wins
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Jacksonville OVER 6.5 wins
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NY Jets OVER 5.5 wins
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Seattle OVER 5.5 wins
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Atlanta OVER 4.5 wins
The sub-teams
Twelve other teams have cashed the under on their total season wins:
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Tampa Bay UNDER 11.5 wins
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LA Rams UNDER 10.5 wins
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Green Bay UNDER 10.5 wins
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Denver UNDER 10.5 wins
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Indianapolis UNDER 9.5 wins
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Tennessee UNDER 9.5 wins
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Las Vegas UNDER 8.5 wins
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Cleveland UNDER 8.5 wins
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Arizona UNDER 8.5 wins
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New Orleans UNDER 8.5 wins
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Chicago UNDER 5.5 wins
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Houston UNDER 4.5 wins
