Since the buzz around free agent Trea Turner and the Mets recently started building, some eager to shoot it down like a fool.
Why would the Mets want Turner when they already have? Francisco Lindor?
Why would Turner want to switch positions, and where would he even play on the Mets?
Why would the Mets invest a lot of money in a position player who doesn’t provide a lot of power?
The above questions are all somewhat valid, but flawed.
Turner isn’t a perfect fit for the Mets, but he’s one of the best players in baseball. And the Mets, who need to add shock to their offense and can have enough money to distribute depending on how many of their own free agents they bring back, should have a lot of interest in Turner – regardless of the imperfect fit.
Should they sign him?
CONS
Turner starts next season at age 29 and turns 30 on June 30, so he’s not exactly a kid. And there’s a chance he’ll get a deal for eight years or more. That could be a ton to give to someone who generates a lot of value with his legs and is about to be on the wrong side of 30 — Turner has averaged 44 stolen bases per 162 games.
The Mets recently gave a big deal to Lindor, but they paid it off before his 27-year season. For Turner, they would give it to him before his 30th birthday. And Lindor is a better defender than Turner.
Speaking of Lindor, the Mets will pay him $32 million annually through 2031, and they’ll soon have to pay too Peter Alonso if they want to prevent him from leaving as a free agent after the 2024 season.
Would the Mets be comfortable with three-position players earning $30 million or more over half a decade or more? That will obviously depend on how the rest of the squad is built, and it could get a serious facelift in the off-season, with Brandon Nimmo possibly leaving via free agency and a handful of other major free agents.
Now to address the elephant in the room…
Turner is a shortstop and the Mets already have Lindor. But Turner moved to second base with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2021 Corey Seager in brief. And if he’s willing to play second base with the Mets, why wouldn’t they chase him?
Perhaps Turner doesn’t want to go too short, which would make any chase moot. But he is one of the four star shortstops (Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaertsand Dansby Swanson are the others) in a crowded free agent market. So maybe he’s willing to switch positions if the right opportunity arises.
Another “problem” with Turner is that he’s not much of a home run hitter, and the Mets could definitely use more pop. But Turner has a career .842 OPS and helps make up for his relative pedestrian prowess by hitting double plays and getting on base a whole lot.
There’s also the issue of how Turner’s signing might affect the Mets’ payroll.
If they redraw Jacob de Grom and also bringing back Nimmo, it’s hard to see an attack. But if the Mets lose one or both, going to Turner could make a lot of sense.
PROS
Turner is one of the best players in baseball and is a true dynamic offensive weapon.
Turner, a .302/.355/.487 career hitter, was the 13th most valuable player in baseball last season according to fWAR. For reference, Lindor was seventh, Jeff MacNeil became 21st and Nimmo became 27th.
Adding Turner to a team that Nimmo loses would help offset that loss and then some. But imagine adding Turner to a team of Nimmo, along with Lindor and McNeil and Alonso. It could make the Mets’ lineup absolutely lethal.
Would it be wise for the Mets to sign Turner if they re-sign Nimmo? Yes. Would it be wise for the Mets to sign Turner if they re-sign Nimmo? and the Grom? Probably not. It’s also arguable that making Nimmo walk and only passing Turner and deGrom can be difficult. After all, the Mets have a lot of holes to fill in the rotation and bullpen this offseason, and they should also be looking at signing a DH.
Yes, Steve Cohen can afford to do what he wants. But if the Mets have long, expensive deals for Lindor, Turner, Nimmo and the recently re-signed Edwin Diaz on the books, along with three or four years of deGrom and two more of Max Scherzer, their payroll will be very top-heavy. And as mentioned above, they will soon have to pay Alonso.
That means if the Mets have a legitimate interest in Turner, they should probably part ways with at least one of Nimmo or deGrom.
If it is Nimmo who leaves, the Mets will have to replace him in the outfield. And by signing Turner, the Mets could shift McNeil from second base (where he started 95 games last season) to a corner outfield spot as he shifted Spree Marte back to midfield.
If it’s deGrom who leaves, it’ll probably net at least $40 million over the next three or four seasons that would otherwise have been dedicated to him, making a pursuit of Turner or some other exciting position player more likely than it would be. be if deGrom stays.
And if the Mets lost both deGrom and Nimmo, it’s hard to see them not allocating a lot of those dollars to another impact player or two.
To be clear, the Mets shouldn’t just be pursuing stars. And they should not go after them in a reactionary manner if they lose some of their most important internal free agents.
But the Mets are in the middle of their World Series window and they should be aggressive as they try to win a title during that window. Turner would help them with that.
VERDICT
Of all the outside position players free agents on the market including of course Aaron Judge and the three other star shortstops listed above, I think Turner makes the most sense for the Mets.
And when I’m the Mets, I try to fill the void of power by drawing Jose Abreu to be the DH.
As for the Mets and Turner, it may simply come down to timing, especially as it pertains to deGrom’s future and – to a lesser extent – Nimmo’s.
If deGrom drags his feet or signs elsewhere, things could get really interesting – depending in part on what happens with Nimmo and if the Mets try to sign another ace. And it doesn’t get much more interesting than Turner.
